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Abstrace: The Effect of Music Piracy on CDs Purchases

Music industry in Thailand faces the piracy problem. The beginning of the music piracy in the digital era started in 1998. There were pirated music CDs containing 80-160 songs or combining various albums in MP3 format per disc, and they were priced only 200-250 baht for each. The lower price and no strict legal action made pirated CDs become more popular and attracted retails to sell more. Simultaneously, the internet as the new channel to share the music allows the piracy to spread widely and to increase the number of users.

This study attempts to measure the effect of music piracy on CDs purchases in Thailand. The individual data collected by field survey are used instead since the lack of aggregated data in Thailand. Simultaneous tobit model is employed to the study since the data on music purchases are zero for a significant fraction, and the pirated music consumption appearing as independent variable is endogenous.

The econometric result shows that the conditional expected quantity of the original CDs individual purchased decreases by 0.001 albums when the quantity of pirated albums individual consumed increases by one album. Nevertheless, this variable is insignificant. One of the reasons is that the study assumes that each consumer purchases only one unit of the product. But, in reality, instead of buying a unit of product, a consumer can either buy the original music CDs or consume the pirated music. Besides, consumer who uses the pirated album may purchase that original album if he likes the music, while consumer who purchases the original album will buy neither that illegal CD nor download music files which are exactly the purchased album. This may lead to the insignificant estimated result. However, at least in our samples, we can state that pirated music does not affect the quantity purchased in the original music CDs. In other words, it can be implied that pirated music does not cause the decline in music purchases significantly as always mentioned.

The level of music interest is the most influential variable determining music purchases positively. Willingness to pay and ages of consumers also have influences on music purchases in the positive way. Gender represented as dummy variable is positive. It is interpreted that males purchase more music CDs than females do. While the level of consumer’s concern in quality difference and the number of hours on listening to the music positively determine music purchases, they are insignificant.

To explain the decline in music purchases, the qualitative questions are added to ask the respondents. It can be concluded that the decline in music sales occurs because (1) there are no albums releasing from consumers’ favorite artists, (2) consumers prefer to listen to only songs matched with their preferences and ignore the rest of the album, (3) songs are not melodious as the expectation, (4) law enforcement and quality difference between original and pirated music seem meaningless to consumers, and (5) the price of the original album is too high.

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